25 August 2006

The Devilish Triangle of Budget Policy

An age ago I posted on the Kanutian approach to financial management that the 5th Directorate Thugs so enjoy.  And here from the ante-deluvian Moscow Times comment yet more evidence.

The Devilish Triangle of Budget Policy:
But then President Vladimir Putin reshuffled the cards. Apparently talks with businessmen convinced him that a stronger ruble could harm the economy. So now the government and Central Bank have three assignments: keep inflation down, halt real ruble appreciation and, foremost, increase government spending. In short: Do the impossible.

The joy of a command economy without criticism is that you can command.  If inflation, ruble growth and government spending are to be controlled together then that is how it must be.  If the order comes from VVP, its pretty difficult for the press to point out that only someone who ran an administrative office in Dresden could possibly believe that the three can have a mutually happy ending.

There is a seeming surfeit of articles saying that if the price of oil was not so high then the Russian economy would be in trouble.  But it is, high that is. Whether you believe in Hubbert's Peak Oil theory or, more prosaically, that demand is growing faster than supply;    the price of oil in the medium term is destined to remain above its long term average. 

Meanwhile I am trying to find who has the cure for the Dutch Disease that seems to have replaced Bird Flu as the global pandemic to worry about.

As a friend never tires of saying;

If we had some eggs, we could have have ham and eggs.  If we had some ham.


[composed and posted with
ecto]


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25 August 2006

The Devilish Triangle of Budget Policy

An age ago I posted on the Kanutian approach to financial management that the 5th Directorate Thugs so enjoy.  And here from the ante-deluvian Moscow Times comment yet more evidence.

The Devilish Triangle of Budget Policy:
But then President Vladimir Putin reshuffled the cards. Apparently talks with businessmen convinced him that a stronger ruble could harm the economy. So now the government and Central Bank have three assignments: keep inflation down, halt real ruble appreciation and, foremost, increase government spending. In short: Do the impossible.

The joy of a command economy without criticism is that you can command.  If inflation, ruble growth and government spending are to be controlled together then that is how it must be.  If the order comes from VVP, its pretty difficult for the press to point out that only someone who ran an administrative office in Dresden could possibly believe that the three can have a mutually happy ending.

There is a seeming surfeit of articles saying that if the price of oil was not so high then the Russian economy would be in trouble.  But it is, high that is. Whether you believe in Hubbert's Peak Oil theory or, more prosaically, that demand is growing faster than supply;    the price of oil in the medium term is destined to remain above its long term average. 

Meanwhile I am trying to find who has the cure for the Dutch Disease that seems to have replaced Bird Flu as the global pandemic to worry about.

As a friend never tires of saying;

If we had some eggs, we could have have ham and eggs.  If we had some ham.


[composed and posted with
ecto]


Technorati Tags: ,

No comments: