Ruminations on Russia

Update: Al Breach of UBS, who always writes amusingly and well, has this to say;

“Being too sanguine about market performance in the run-up to transfers of power in emerging markets has rarely paid off.”

Viewed from this point in the cycle being sanguine may work.  By end 1Q I'll bet investors are a little less sanguine.

From Russian Corporatism.  I'll take a small bet that M&A dries up after 1Q 2007 and the market goes sideways at best, assuming always that oil isn't Goldman Sachs-ing its way to $105/bbl.  In amongst the sideways will be more than a little up and down as we Russia watchers/livers get to play the “will he / won't he” game (stay as President.) On this issue RC and I are on different sides of the fence.  Bragging rights to the victor.

Russian Corporatism: Investors do not fear the 2008 elections - comment:

Russia, in the eyes of investors, has reached its most stable political and economic situation since the collapse of the USSR. Only 35 percent of investors (down from 54 percent in 2005) consider Russia to be a higher risk country compared to other emerging markets. Even the upcoming 2008 elections do not seem to scare investors away, as many of them predict that the stability will not be challenged by the difficult electoral process. Over 90 percent of investors say they will expand their dealings in Russia in the next few years.

2005 has been the best economic year for decades, buoyed by high commodity prices and the stock market has soared. Political stability has also been achieved, albeit drawing criticism of rolling back on democracy. The sheer size of the market attracts investors the most, with other 90 percent saying that it has influenced their decision to invest. Stable economic progress has attracted 82 percent of investors whilst 48 percent approve of the political stability.

Corruption is the most negative occurrence in the country with the over 82 percent (up from 72 percent in 2005) of the participants expressing worry about it. Undemocratic values of the governing elite rile 67 percent of investors, while lack of law and fair courts – 72 percent.

RC, Vedomosti, Gazeta.ru

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