The brokers put out the usual self-congratulatory notes on their 2005 forecasts for Comstar.
Here are the things they did not say. Whilst they are not meaningful in the context of the 2005 results they are in terms of forecast growth prospects.
EOY Broadband subscribers - 250k - in line
Broadband ARPU's - $18.6 - forecast $23.5 (-21%). Compare these with Okado and Ethernet ARPU's.
PayTV Subs - 6.7k - Forecast 14.6k (-54%). Still no understanding of how to sell cable TV to Moscovites.
EBITDA looks (overly?) strong but there are warnings of changes in accounting practices - not unheard of in Sistema companies.
Running a very limited survey over the holiday weekend at the dacha (survey sample 3) we discovered 100% dissatisfaction with StreamTV. Complaints ranged from something less than 100% up time (100% of respondents) to appalling customer service (66.67% of respondents). And this in a country where customer service expectations are low.
[composed and posted with ecto]