31 July 2006

The War in Lebanon is Irrelevant

There is an desperate desire to link energy security and Israel and Hizbollah's attempt  to drag Lebanon (back) in to the dark ages.

Michel Chossudovsky at The Canadian Center for Research on Globalization is merely the latest to make the attempt and provides one of the worst examples of the genre which will allow me to make the most fun of it.

Hat tip to Sharp and Sound.

Firstly the relationship between the conflict and Lebanon and energy security; none, absolutely none and grow up.  Israel has a population that is approximately the same size as Scotland - 6mn and has none of Scotland's reserves.  Lebanon by size is half the size of Israel.  It also has no meaningful hydrocarbons - indeed its main industry is reconstruction; with apologies to The Now Show.  The main sponsors of both sides, the US and Iran, are either the world's largest consumer or one of the largest producers.  The chance of a global conflagration over a battle between Israel and a bunch of Shia thugs is very low.  So we might miss some very clever security software and Intel may be able to downscale some of its production capacity.  Not entirely sure what Lebanon uniquely contributes to the world economy, other than building contracts.  Humus does not count.  If you want to bring Syria in to the equation please provide examples of how its destruction will impact the global economy.  The only reason that the current conflict might seem more important than it actually is has something to do with Israel's excellent PR machine and the number of civilians suffering from collateral damage - that's dying.

And so to what is wrong with Chossudovsky's article.  Well where to start.

A synopsis might help you;


  • Baku - Ceyhan is a global attempt to tie Israel in to the global energy security infrastructure so that Caspian oil can get to Asia and not to either Europe or the US.
  • Israel is part of the pro-US, anti-Russian energy security policy - which makes GAZP's moves in to Israel slightly baffling.
  • Russia has been weakened by Baku-Ceyhan - as you will have noticed during G8
  • Israel will determine where Caspian production goes.........“The strategic implications of this re-routing of Caspian sea oil are farreaching.”  You don't say - not sure that anyone other than Israel knows anything about this.
  • This will undermine Russia's attempt to control oil and gas pipelines to Asia; which will in any event come from Kazakhstan.

Short version - this is specious nonsense.


[composed and posted with
ecto]


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2 comments:

copydude said...

It would logically have more to do with water, since the Israelis plan to continue their invasion, so they say, up to the Litani river. Water is in short supply in the Mid East.

Anonymous said...

There are a couple of things going on. The US/Israeli policy is to redraw the middle east. Of course this started in Iraq and guess what Russian oil contracts were trashed.

Supported the Sunni and now have a mess.Unless Russia steps into moderate with the French and Iran, ultimately the Israelis/AMericans will dictate policy. It is just the way it is. Pick your devil.. but the prize is oil, logistics, arms and of course. access to the Med.
===
CLN

31 July 2006

The War in Lebanon is Irrelevant

There is an desperate desire to link energy security and Israel and Hizbollah's attempt  to drag Lebanon (back) in to the dark ages.

Michel Chossudovsky at The Canadian Center for Research on Globalization is merely the latest to make the attempt and provides one of the worst examples of the genre which will allow me to make the most fun of it.

Hat tip to Sharp and Sound.

Firstly the relationship between the conflict and Lebanon and energy security; none, absolutely none and grow up.  Israel has a population that is approximately the same size as Scotland - 6mn and has none of Scotland's reserves.  Lebanon by size is half the size of Israel.  It also has no meaningful hydrocarbons - indeed its main industry is reconstruction; with apologies to The Now Show.  The main sponsors of both sides, the US and Iran, are either the world's largest consumer or one of the largest producers.  The chance of a global conflagration over a battle between Israel and a bunch of Shia thugs is very low.  So we might miss some very clever security software and Intel may be able to downscale some of its production capacity.  Not entirely sure what Lebanon uniquely contributes to the world economy, other than building contracts.  Humus does not count.  If you want to bring Syria in to the equation please provide examples of how its destruction will impact the global economy.  The only reason that the current conflict might seem more important than it actually is has something to do with Israel's excellent PR machine and the number of civilians suffering from collateral damage - that's dying.

And so to what is wrong with Chossudovsky's article.  Well where to start.

A synopsis might help you;


  • Baku - Ceyhan is a global attempt to tie Israel in to the global energy security infrastructure so that Caspian oil can get to Asia and not to either Europe or the US.
  • Israel is part of the pro-US, anti-Russian energy security policy - which makes GAZP's moves in to Israel slightly baffling.
  • Russia has been weakened by Baku-Ceyhan - as you will have noticed during G8
  • Israel will determine where Caspian production goes.........“The strategic implications of this re-routing of Caspian sea oil are farreaching.”  You don't say - not sure that anyone other than Israel knows anything about this.
  • This will undermine Russia's attempt to control oil and gas pipelines to Asia; which will in any event come from Kazakhstan.

Short version - this is specious nonsense.


[composed and posted with
ecto]


Technorati Tags: , , , ,

2 comments:

copydude said...

It would logically have more to do with water, since the Israelis plan to continue their invasion, so they say, up to the Litani river. Water is in short supply in the Mid East.

Anonymous said...

There are a couple of things going on. The US/Israeli policy is to redraw the middle east. Of course this started in Iraq and guess what Russian oil contracts were trashed.

Supported the Sunni and now have a mess.Unless Russia steps into moderate with the French and Iran, ultimately the Israelis/AMericans will dictate policy. It is just the way it is. Pick your devil.. but the prize is oil, logistics, arms and of course. access to the Med.
===
CLN