I'm a finance guy, albeit an early stage one, and I'm worried by the shareholder approach that says that Telenor should be a seller of Kyivstar and VIP.N so that it can return cash to shareholders. I tried two IB websites for some clarity - they are both on the outside now but are hoping that Spitzer-lite comments will get them a place at the table - so no clarity.
I can see that Vodafone should be divesting in negative-growth Japan and creating a solution in the US. These are both low growth markets. Ukraine, in particular, and Russia are not low growth. They are both simplistic telecom markets with no service culture. If investors in Telenor can generate higher returns than VIP.N and Kyivstar then don't invest in Telenor unless your Alpha-search is in excess of 4. It's what is known in game theory as a double-edged sword.
What I can see an innovative corporate financier (OK it's an oxymoron) doing is underwriting Telenor's buyout bid for Alfa's stake and then buying it out at an attractive premium. A switch from zero growth Japan to 20% growth Russia would be a redeeming move for Vodafone's management.
22 March 2006
VIP.N Alfa & Telenor
I'm a finance guy, albeit an early stage one, and I'm worried by the shareholder approach that says that Telenor should be a seller of Kyivstar and VIP.N so that it can return cash to shareholders. I tried two IB websites for some clarity - they are both on the outside now but are hoping that Spitzer-lite comments will get them a place at the table - so no clarity.
I can see that Vodafone should be divesting in negative-growth Japan and creating a solution in the US. These are both low growth markets. Ukraine, in particular, and Russia are not low growth. They are both simplistic telecom markets with no service culture. If investors in Telenor can generate higher returns than VIP.N and Kyivstar then don't invest in Telenor unless your Alpha-search is in excess of 4. It's what is known in game theory as a double-edged sword.
What I can see an innovative corporate financier (OK it's an oxymoron) doing is underwriting Telenor's buyout bid for Alfa's stake and then buying it out at an attractive premium. A switch from zero growth Japan to 20% growth Russia would be a redeeming move for Vodafone's management.
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