I came across this story courtesy of Valleywag, a Valley (Silicon-type) online scandal site with an unhealthy interest in the love lives of the Google Two and the females who work there (though guys, you MISSED the Moscow office).
Back to the boring. Valleywag picked up on Sergey Guriev's claim in Kommersant that the most famous Russian in the US last year was Sergey Brin, not Khodorkhovsky, our very own VVP or any of the Fifth Directorate Thugs currently taking courses in basic economics courtesy of the Russian people.
I am inclined to agree with the basic premises of the article; namely that the West sees Russia very differently from the way that Russia sees itself. But as a favor to you, my honored reader, I have edited out some of the more ridiculous statements to focus on the core of the argument;
“There are two separate Russias in the modern world. One is the Russia of the Russian media. It is an energy superpower rapidly returning to its former position in the world. The second Russia is the one in the Western consciousness. That is a corrupt, authoritarian country with a small economy, an unfit army and imperial ambitions. In that regard, Russia has come to look more like the Soviet Union in recent years. It is not just a matter of spy scandals and the nationalization of the petroleum and automobile industries. The perception of Russia, by both Russians and foreigners, has changed as well. As in Soviet times, those perceptions are again diametrically opposed.”
Guriev goes on to claim (and I am not sure that the argument hangs together) that Russia cannot survive on natural resources alone. It is however, an argument that VVP certainly buys.
“Dutch disease of the mind is dangerous because Russia cannot have a long-term raw materials-based future. Oil, gas and metals cannot ensure sufficient income for a country as large as Russia, even at current prices. If oil prices fall in three or five years, due to a world recession, or stability in the Middle East or the introduction of energy conservation technology, the authorities in Russia will not be able to keep their promises to the voters and a political crisis will be unavoidable. And the change of governments will not necessarily take place constitutionally.”
The penultimate paragraph is very very good. It reminds me of the Britain I grew up in and watched being changed in front of my eyes by Mrs Thatcher.
“Dutch disease of the mind is dangerous because Russia cannot have a long-term raw materials-based future. Oil, gas and metals cannot ensure sufficient income for a country as large as Russia, even at current prices. If oil prices fall in three or five years, due to a world recession, or stability in the Middle East or the introduction of energy conservation technology, the authorities in Russia will not be able to keep their promises to the voters and a political crisis will be unavoidable. And the change of governments will not necessarily take place constitutionally.”
See he just blew it in the last sentence.
My take is that Russia's educated youth is a lot more content than Guriev gives them credit for. Though I question whether they should be and whether they have learnt too many bad lessons from their leaders. In particular that it is stupid to work for money when it can be taken for nothing.
And the best thing about this post; technology and commodities all in one post.
[composed and posted with ecto]
Technorati Tags: Economy, Russia, Technology
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