30 March 2005

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Yesterday German Gref, Minister for Economy, Development and Trade (MEDT) yesterday announced that the government was dropping its 8.5% inflation target and raising the target to 10% (Not sure how durable this link is.)

Also yesterday we got close to closing our annual negotiations to rent our dacha for 2006 we have agreed with our somewhat batty landlady that her real inflation is closer to 20% than it is 10%. What gives?

Is this just Moscow related inflation with the more backward parts of the country, partially yes, but I feel that it has more to do with a number with games played between a limited number of players with imperfect information.

Whatever, the real cost of living in Moscow in going through the roof and salaries reflect this, not reported salaries which represent between 5-50% of actual salaries, but cash out every month. A common bitch among business owners (principally expat) these days is that salary demands are completely out of sync with experience and ability. This is not a Russia is going "to hell in a hand basket" post but an attempt to provide a micro review of an economy that only has macro players.

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30 March 2005

Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics

Yesterday German Gref, Minister for Economy, Development and Trade (MEDT) yesterday announced that the government was dropping its 8.5% inflation target and raising the target to 10% (Not sure how durable this link is.)

Also yesterday we got close to closing our annual negotiations to rent our dacha for 2006 we have agreed with our somewhat batty landlady that her real inflation is closer to 20% than it is 10%. What gives?

Is this just Moscow related inflation with the more backward parts of the country, partially yes, but I feel that it has more to do with a number with games played between a limited number of players with imperfect information.

Whatever, the real cost of living in Moscow in going through the roof and salaries reflect this, not reported salaries which represent between 5-50% of actual salaries, but cash out every month. A common bitch among business owners (principally expat) these days is that salary demands are completely out of sync with experience and ability. This is not a Russia is going "to hell in a hand basket" post but an attempt to provide a micro review of an economy that only has macro players.

No comments: