An exceedingly good article on US/UK Gas Wars by Jerome a Paris in TOD. We have differences of opinion not least of which relate to Gazprom's ability to meet its own supply forecasts in the medium-term. Vladimir Milov has some good graphs showing Jonathan Stern's forecasts of decline of Russia's major gas fields. Attached is Vladimir's own graph which looks exactly like mine, except his is a picture and mine is an excel graph. Jerome is correct that there is plenty of gas in Russia but his demand forecasts are a little out of date. Notwithstanding his point is that the US/UK are trying to demonize Russia from a fallacious base. It's worth the read.
1 comment:
Ruminator,
Interesting article on Gazprom. I thought there was an interesting presentation over at Milov's site which included the forecasted budget of Gazprom -- buried only in the Russian version of the site now -- granted the price of gas was a bit on the low side (foreign of about $4.00 mcfe when now it's $6.50+) but with this price assumption, Gazprom's debt ballons. This is the first analysis of internal budgets I've seen on Gapzrom. The problem is that Gazprom's cost inflation is accelerating -- even without infrastructure improvements. The budget forecast is on page 22 of the December 7, 2005: (in Russian): http://www.energypolicy.ru/pv.php?id=1002396
I am wondering, do you think this forecast is reasonable? I was thinking about creating a set of projections based around this forecast, with different assumptions. It seems to me this would get at the root of what Gazprom can and cannot do in terms of project development.
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