28 August 2004

Vonage and VoIP

Vonage's latest infusion equity led to this first from Bill Burnham followed by this from Om Malik. As I know nothing about the online equity trading business I'll not add to sum of human wisdom being imparted in the similarities.

I had hoped that a comment that the company was cash flow positive before customer acquisition cost might inspire a Sage of Omaha type put down. Here's mine; my car costs nothing to run before petrol (gas), insurance, servicing and depreciation. If your business involves acquiring customers then stripping out the cost is at best duplicitous. Surely it is the job of the blogging community to point out such monstrous bullshit. Let the mainline press quote verbatim from press releases without thinking.

Anyway that was not the main point of the post. In my evolving thinking about sessions over IP my recent trip to Nizhny Novgorod, the centre of Russia's telecom technology industry, has taken me a step further. I am not smart enough to determine whether Vonage or Skype will be good investments. I am fairly sure that they won't be great companies.

This recent piece from the VON round up about BT becoming the European centre for VoIP interop testing would suggest that VoIP is not only not ready for prime time but that we have some time to wait before they are. The company that I was visiting in Nizhny's value proposition is building products that allow Nortel IP PBX's speak to Avaya etc. How can you expect to have an industry when there are no standards and no interoperability.

So I posit that there will be a crisis before we see the sessions over IP winners. If the owners of Skype and Vonage have cashed out before the crisis then great investments. I also posit that SIP will not spawn the winner; it's too large a signaling package and thinks like traditional telephony. Lets call this phase of the transition IP over TDM or new telephony like old telephony. The truly disruptive phase has not yet started and we don't yet know what it will look like - but keep reading Isenberg if you are looking for a clue.

19 comments:

Joe Muka said...

Just checking out blogs for ideas to add to my site about voip carrier and other voip stuff. (I know its a boring subject) I liked your site

Anonymous said...

Hi, Need to know about telecommunications story or update, so visit my website **Telecom** site/blog. It pretty much covers Telecommunications Updates related stuff.

Have a nice day.
Otai

Anonymous said...

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A. Weinberger said...

Hi, Thanks for your interesting blog. Keep up the great work! I also have a site & blog about internet telephony voip, please feel free to visit.

Anonymous said...

Hi,

We may share some interest part of telecommunications story or update, so visit my website **Telecom** site/blog. It pretty much covers Telecommunications Updates related stuff.

Have a nice day.
Otai

Peter Dobler said...

Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!

I have a business affiliate program site/blog. It pretty much covers business affiliate program related stuff.

Come and check it out if you get time :-)

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Anonymous said...

Hi, Need to know about telecommunications story or update, so visit my website **Telecom** site/blog. It pretty much covers Telecommunications Updates related stuff.

Have a nice day.
Otai

real estate note said...

Hi Blogger, Out surfing for information on cash flow business & happened upon your site. While this post wasn't exactly spot on, it did strike a note with me. Thank you for the really good read.

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but very worthwhile last few days for me. In searching for more accounting depreciation for software related info on the Internet, I came across your site. I appreciate your content and I really appreciate your this post! It's been a great help in collecting more info on accounting depreciation for software. Thanks again and have a great day!

28 August 2004

Vonage and VoIP

Vonage's latest infusion equity led to this first from Bill Burnham followed by this from Om Malik. As I know nothing about the online equity trading business I'll not add to sum of human wisdom being imparted in the similarities.

I had hoped that a comment that the company was cash flow positive before customer acquisition cost might inspire a Sage of Omaha type put down. Here's mine; my car costs nothing to run before petrol (gas), insurance, servicing and depreciation. If your business involves acquiring customers then stripping out the cost is at best duplicitous. Surely it is the job of the blogging community to point out such monstrous bullshit. Let the mainline press quote verbatim from press releases without thinking.

Anyway that was not the main point of the post. In my evolving thinking about sessions over IP my recent trip to Nizhny Novgorod, the centre of Russia's telecom technology industry, has taken me a step further. I am not smart enough to determine whether Vonage or Skype will be good investments. I am fairly sure that they won't be great companies.

This recent piece from the VON round up about BT becoming the European centre for VoIP interop testing would suggest that VoIP is not only not ready for prime time but that we have some time to wait before they are. The company that I was visiting in Nizhny's value proposition is building products that allow Nortel IP PBX's speak to Avaya etc. How can you expect to have an industry when there are no standards and no interoperability.

So I posit that there will be a crisis before we see the sessions over IP winners. If the owners of Skype and Vonage have cashed out before the crisis then great investments. I also posit that SIP will not spawn the winner; it's too large a signaling package and thinks like traditional telephony. Lets call this phase of the transition IP over TDM or new telephony like old telephony. The truly disruptive phase has not yet started and we don't yet know what it will look like - but keep reading Isenberg if you are looking for a clue.

19 comments:

Joe Muka said...

Just checking out blogs for ideas to add to my site about voip carrier and other voip stuff. (I know its a boring subject) I liked your site

Anonymous said...

Hi, Need to know about telecommunications story or update, so visit my website **Telecom** site/blog. It pretty much covers Telecommunications Updates related stuff.

Have a nice day.
Otai

Anonymous said...

Great Blog! A real pleasure to read! Do you know that Traffic Portals will really boost your conversion rates and generate exclusively yours leads? We offer VOIP webinars - Marketing Courses Using Web Conferences about Traffic Portals I also have a website that talks about various high profile topics such as Retirement and includes an eBusiness Directory. I also would like to tell all of you reading this terrific blog about Retirement that should you be in need of a terrific host for a serious eCommerce Website that www.Kiosk.ws is Awesome Hosting value! They have the best online support team for all of your technical questions and a 3 minute emergency pager too. Looking to start your own affiliate program? They have an excellent script for you! They give you $70,000 dollars worth of software to build just about any type of e-commerce website you need! Go check it out if you get a chance. You can make more money than you spend and Create Free Will for Yourself! Again, Great Blog! Thanks. The info on Retirement Sooner was very informative!

A. Weinberger said...

Hi, Thanks for your interesting blog. Keep up the great work! I also have a site & blog about internet telephony voip, please feel free to visit.

Anonymous said...

Hi,

We may share some interest part of telecommunications story or update, so visit my website **Telecom** site/blog. It pretty much covers Telecommunications Updates related stuff.

Have a nice day.
Otai

Peter Dobler said...

Hey, you have a great blog here! I'm definitely going to bookmark you!

I have a business affiliate program site/blog. It pretty much covers business affiliate program related stuff.

Come and check it out if you get time :-)

Chuck Reynolds said...

walden book store MyOpp is the first portal to activate a complete portfolio of income streams with one click!walden book store

cash flow industry said...

Hi Blogger, Out surfing for information on business notes & happened upon your site. While this post wasn't exactly spot on, it did strike a note with me. Thank you for the really good read.

homebusinesses said...

Hi there Blogger, I had been out looking for some new information on cash flow industry when I found your site and this post. Though not just what I was searching for, it drew my attention. An interesting post and I thank you for it.

cash flows said...

Hi there Blogger, I had been out looking for some new information on discounted notes when I found your site and this post. Though not just what I was searching for, it drew my attention. An interesting post and I thank you for it.

real estate note said...

Hi there Blogger, I had been out looking for some new information on discounted notes when I found your site and this post. Though not just what I was searching for, it drew my attention. An interesting post and I thank you for it.

real estate note said...

Hi there Blogger, I had been out looking for some new information on discounted notes when I found your site and this post. Though not just what I was searching for, it drew my attention. An interesting post and I thank you for it.

cash flow industry said...

Hi there Blogger, I had been out looking for some new information on cash flow business when I found your site and this post. Though not just what I was searching for, it drew my attention. An interesting post and I thank you for it.

cash flows said...

Hi Blogger, Out surfing for information on cash flow business & happened upon your site. While this post wasn't exactly spot on, it did strike a note with me. Thank you for the really good read.

cash flow note said...

Hello Blogger, been looking for the latest info on real estate note and found this post. Though not exactly what I was searching for, it did get my attention. Interesting post, thanks for a great read.

cash flow industry said...

Hi there Blogger, I had been out looking for some new information on discounted notes when I found your site and this post. Though not just what I was searching for, it drew my attention. An interesting post and I thank you for it.

Anonymous said...

Hi, Need to know about telecommunications story or update, so visit my website **Telecom** site/blog. It pretty much covers Telecommunications Updates related stuff.

Have a nice day.
Otai

real estate note said...

Hi Blogger, Out surfing for information on cash flow business & happened upon your site. While this post wasn't exactly spot on, it did strike a note with me. Thank you for the really good read.

Crazy Dan said...

Just thought I would stop by and say "Hello Blogger." It's been a hectic
but very worthwhile last few days for me. In searching for more accounting depreciation for software related info on the Internet, I came across your site. I appreciate your content and I really appreciate your this post! It's been a great help in collecting more info on accounting depreciation for software. Thanks again and have a great day!