This reported by UFG, sorry that should be Deutsche UFG, via BNE (also my browser but I can't share that). This on the same day that it was reported via Kommersant that Itera intends to return its gas assets to GAZP, continuing noise on Kovytka. Not to mention the less-than-white Gutseriev and Russneft.
Maybe more importantly the definition of a strategic gas field was set at 50bcm (~300mn BOE). Which is close to saying that my sock draw contains a strategic number of the global sock population.
Somewhere, easy enough to fathom - the Kremlin, a bunch of people are fighting battles; the end game of which is not entirely clear. Please, please, please VVP can you put a lid on this.
UFG Research via BNE6. Government sees increasing role of independent gas producers
Deutsche UFG, Russia
Wednesday, January 31, 2007
According to Kommersant, the Minister of Industry and Energy, Victor Khristenko, has said that by 2015-2020, independent gas producers will start to dominate the domestic gas market. We expect independents' share to grow from below 20% last year to 35% in 2015 and 45% in 2020. The changing structure of the domestic gas market is due to the fact that Gazprom's exports are increasing faster than its production, resulting in it losing its market share of domestic customers.
We note, however, that if Gazprom continues to acquire independent gas producers (previous examples include Northgas, Sibneftegaz, Sakhalin-2), its monopoly status will only strengthen. We expect further consolidation on the domestic gas market around three key independent gas producers/oil companies: Novatek, LUKoil and Rosneft. According to our estimates, they have a combined potential production capacity of 180 bcma, compared with Gazprom's 550 bcm last year.
Yesterday, Khristenko reiterated the key principles of the domestic gas market liberalisation, which will make this operating segment increasingly attractive.
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